One in four chance I'll lose the lot

I tried to work out my risk of ruin today at work (in Excel - I think there are online poker calculators that do it but using those would have meant risking an additional kind of ruin). With 99 big bets left, and assuming a win rate of two big bets per hundred, I made it 24%.

A shot from hell

Realising that I can't be playing poker if I want to "go anywhere", I took a shot at $2-$4 badugi tonight. I've played at that level before but on a much bigger bankroll. Tonight I dropped $122 in 231 hands, winning just three showdowns out of sixteen. At one stage I was up $50, having won two showdowns out of four, but then I got coolered left, right and centre. Remarkably the only winning hand I showed down after that was a 64A that picked off a snow. My bankroll is now $397 so three more sessions like that and this poker lark will finally be consigned to history.

Edit: I've now lost $387 in my last 615 hands at that limit (won 28% of showdowns). That's a win rate of -15.7 BB per 100. My win rate tonight (-13.2 BB per 100) represents an improvement!