Car crash

I had a go at 3/6 badugi on Saturday (makes sense really given that I'm over-rolled for the stakes I normally play) but ... it didn't go so well. I played three sessions. I fell behind early in my 145-hand opening session, then went on a tear only to fall back and finish even. In my second session (249 hands) I was up against it, going all-in twice (I know you shouldn't ever be all-in in a limit game) but got out of jail to be up $22 as the table broke. It was the third session that had me licking my wounds. It was just carnage. I broke a pat hand that I shouldn't have done, correctly stood my ground in another hand but it made no difference I was outdrawn anyway, and the 183-hand session ended up being a $300 car crash.

Although I ran badly on Saturday (in the last session nine of my eleven showdown hands were losers, and I didn't exactly run red hot in the other two sessions) I was guilty of playing scared. I was always looking over my shoulder at what my opponents might be doing. That's not good poker. Fear is most definitely the enemy.

I made a mini-comeback in my comfort zone that is 50c/$1 and 1/2, and my bankroll is now $3176, still more than $400 down on the high I reached in mid-September. For now I'll stay in my comfort zone, adding a spot of stud-8 which I'm enjoying.

I got quartered for the first time yesterday in stud-8. I finished up with K765432 in a three-way pot, and naturally jammed the river expecting to get half the pot. I was pretty sure one of my opponents had a wheel, but he turned over 765432A for three-quarters. Surprisingly I've already had his hand twice (you could call it a seven-card wheel I suppose); in my head I worked out the odds of making such a hand (or any specific unpaired hand) at around 8000 to one.

Here are some more probabilities I calculated (a bit more accurately):
The probability of making a low by the river when you have:
     4-low on 6th street.........34.8%
     4-low on 5th street.........57.0%
     3-low on 5th street.........14.8%
     4-low on 4th street.........71.3%
     3-low on 4th street.........32.4%
     3-low on 3rd street.........55.4%
     2-low on 3rd street.........19.6%

None of the probabilities above account for dead cards, which can be a pretty big factor. They show what a difference it makes if you catch good on fourth if you start with a three-low. Even if you have a four-low on fourth, you'll triple-brick two out of seven times, so having some high possibilities is huge especially if your low might not be the best if you make it.

I might have a go at a live tournament tomorrow night. Whatever happens, real people (!) will present an interesting challenge.